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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 18:56:07 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 18:56:07 GMT -5
The above obviously assumes that there are no other votes possible - for example, Paul's hammer. I'll try and take care of that one tonight.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:13:48 GMT -5
Post by pede on Feb 27, 2009 19:13:48 GMT -5
Based on raw numbers it has to be kidv. Unless everyone flops to Paul at the last second. At least we have a little credibility in that two of us are already on Kid. I will be traveling home in a bit and will be off line until I get home. Typing and driving at the same time are contraindicated. Also, since I am on my BB I can only have one session going at a time. I will check back here at 6:45 to make sure nothing has changed. and then i am going to the main thread and make sure i have my post ready and double checked since i do make coding errors on the bb frequently. i don't want to hose this up because of a wrong color or something. my vote unvote all1. Vote KidV 2. Vote Hoopy 3. Vote RoxisHmmmm... on the one hand, I think this gives you away as scum, instantly. The same goes for anyone who votes the same way (and if we're taking out KidV, it should be Punker, since everyone's going to assume he's scum once KidV turns up town. And Nanook, obviously.) On the other hand, I really don't think it matters at this point. If they think it's six-four and think I'm on their side, they'll assume Lylo is one round further away than it actually is. That gives us a huge advantage, provided we can get in two night kills. And hey... there are two protective roles left, and the only one other than me claims to be going to target me tonight. Five-five. Pedescribe, what exactly is the process for a tied vote? For example, say there's five scum and five townies left. All scum vote someone for their top vote - let's say for example, Pollux. All town vote someone else - let's say, Punker. All second and third votes are immaterial.
So both Punker and Pollux end up with fifteen votes in this scenario. Neither side is going to budge. What happens next?(That's assuming all the remaining people other than us are townies of course... if one of them is PFK, it makes things that much easier.) First, the tie is determined by whoever has the largest number of first place votes. If those are equal, then it would be whoever has the largest number of second place votes. If those are also equal...I'll be a little disappointed Sachertorte's clever tie-breaking system didn't work. Then I'll flip a coin.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:15:32 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:15:32 GMT -5
I think we might be better off going for the certain kills and using Kat to redirect the hammer. For this to work, we NEED to kill two tonight. If we go into tomorrow with it tied, the hammer will only provide a delaying action, it won't win it for them. Each Day will start tied again.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:18:25 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:18:25 GMT -5
But mr green and crunchy. Me and punk are going to be next day and the day after so it don't matter. Matter of fact the foregone conclusion will stifle any discussion.
I say stay the course. If we are bailing on charle or havoing second thoughts this not a good time. Matter of fact I want them to pin my ass. I can trophify while nook does whatever. That way even if I get popped tomorrow we still have our ninja ready to kill.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:21:28 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:21:28 GMT -5
Let's double check the math real quick. Can someone who is good with this make damn sure that we are killing kidv.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:22:30 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:22:30 GMT -5
You realize of course that if this works, I'm unlynchable. They can no longer afford a straight one for one trade in that manner.
God I want this to work so bad. It'll be the greatest moment in the history of Mafia if it does.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:24:12 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:24:12 GMT -5
I'm at 19. Four of that will come off when we make our move, leaving me at 15.
KidV currently has 9. When we make our move, he'll pick up 9 more(Me, Kat, peeker). That's 18.
We have to wait as late as possible, or Natlaw could screw it up.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:31:56 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:31:56 GMT -5
OK here's the maths:
- Nanook has fifteen townie votes. - Peek has eleven townie votes.
- KidV has four townie votes. With Kat, Punker and me, that makes twelve. Peek and Nanook, that'll make eighteen if you both hammer KidV.
- Natlaw, Parzival, Hoopy and Roxis will all make safe second and third votes.
- I don't need to change unless someone else hammers Nanook late on. I can put an extra vote on KidV though.
- Pollux is a real threat to hammer Nanook at the finish line. If he takes his vote off KidV and hammers Nanook, all this is in vain.
- Natlaw can also hammer Nanook and take his vote off KidV. Either of these two would wreck the plan no matter what happens.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:35:49 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:35:49 GMT -5
OK, the bad news is that Natlaw has consistently been around at the end of the day to see how things turn out.
The good news, Pollux never has been.
I'll work out the maths for Paul now.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:37:48 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:37:48 GMT -5
Charle said he would check in. It's his call I am down with a last second. Charle you should vote and then it becomes sticky fingers for the three of us.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:39:16 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:39:16 GMT -5
But you have to give about five minutes to switch threads and get set up.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:41:29 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:41:29 GMT -5
Ok, Paul has six town votes, but there's a strong chance that KidV will take his three off Paul and put them onto Nanook - which still only gives Nanook seventeen votes, so as long as Natlaw and Pollux don't switch, he's safe.
If all four scum apart from me put their votes onto Paul last second, he'd have eighteen votes - the same as KidV. That's a net gain of zero over a vote on KidV. It also means that the four of you would be exposed (although I think that's pretty much certain anyway. Hell, even if we kill KidV, the only one of us who won't be pretty much confirmed in most people's minds will be Kat.)
If I did it as well, we'd have twenty-one votes on Paul, but that would immediately expose me as scum. For obvious reasons I don't want to do that.
So I don't see any advantage in going for Paul, unless I'm going to expose myself. Which brings with it a whole new set of problems, namely that you lose the one scum who's widely accepted as town.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:44:47 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:44:47 GMT -5
I'm here. Everyone check in please.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:45:57 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:45:57 GMT -5
We are not going to lynch paul. It's either kidv or nook.
Charle, you out ther buddy. Cause I ain't doing dick until I hear from you.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:47:12 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 27, 2009 19:47:12 GMT -5
I'm not a math person, but I think we can do it without exposing peeker or moley.
If punker takes his 2nd vote off Nanook, that gives him 17.
If punker and Nanook 1st vote KidV, that gives him 18. That'll expose punker.
peeker can be backup, if someone else switches to Nanook, to bring him to 21, but only if that happens, or he'll be exposed.
molefan should only change if there's no other option.
Someone check my math.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:48:04 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:48:04 GMT -5
Right. Nanook, Peeker and Punker, get your posts ready.
Each of you needs to vote KidV for first place and Natlaw, Parzival or Pollux for second and third - it doesn't matter who you respectively. It doesn't really matter about deception any more, although if you get the right phrasing you're set.
Can you all confirm that you're here?
I'm going to watch the main thread. Get your posts ready and keep watching this thread. I'LL POST THE GO-AHEAD IF THIS IS OK.
IF NATLAW OR POLLUX CHANGES THEIR VOTE TO NANOOK BEFORE THE END, DON'T POST ANYTHING. If they do, I won't give the go-ahead. If one of those two changes their vote to Nook, you won't get KidV lynched and you'll be exposing yourselves.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:48:47 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:48:47 GMT -5
Unvote All 1. Vote KidV 2. Vote Hoopy 3. Vote Roxis[/color]
There's your template. Quote this, copy and paste the above, and then wait for my signal.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:50:16 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:50:16 GMT -5
Punker and me are screwed no matter what
But unless the rest of the gang is here and ready to dogpile I am hedging a touch.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:50:29 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:50:29 GMT -5
I'm going to wait as long as possible to make my move. No way I'm risking anything.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:50:46 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:50:46 GMT -5
I'm not a math person, but I think we can do it without exposing peeker or moley. If punker takes his 2nd vote off Nanook, that gives him 17. If punker and Nanook 1st vote KidV, that gives him 18. That'll expose punker. peeker can be backup, if someone else switches to Nanook, to bring him to 21, but only if that happens, or he'll be exposed. molefan should only change if there's no other option. Someone check my math. Yeah, that's right, sorry. But I think Peeker is more exposed than Punker right now.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:51:20 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:51:20 GMT -5
Punker, where are you? This won't work without you.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:51:45 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:51:45 GMT -5
And I am really fighting it since I can't see the main thread. Where in the world is charle. 'Bout tne minutes give or take.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:51:53 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:51:53 GMT -5
Keep waiting.
Keep waiting...
I'M FOLLOWING THE THREAD RIGHT NOW. In about seven minutes' time I'll give the go-ahead.
Watch this thread. If I do, go for it. Dogpile KidV. If Peeker AND Punker does it, it doesn't leave room for any mistakes.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:52:16 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:52:16 GMT -5
Nevermind that, we just need me and Peeker to do this.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:52:59 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 19:52:59 GMT -5
Ok, off to the main thread. I guess I play it by ear.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:52:58 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 27, 2009 19:52:58 GMT -5
[Willy Wonka]The suspense is terrible. I hope it lasts.[/WW]
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:53:18 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:53:18 GMT -5
0:54AM. Wait for it... still no change from Natlaw or Pollux.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:53:29 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:53:29 GMT -5
Don't post yet! Just be ready to. 4 minutes.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:53:59 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 19:53:59 GMT -5
Nevermind that, we just need me and Peeker to do this. Charle, that's risky. If one person changes their vote, we could be caught with our pants round our ankles.
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Day 5
Feb 27, 2009 19:54:09 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 19:54:09 GMT -5
That conference call thing would be REALLY freakin handy right about now.
You watching all this Ped? Having a good time I hope.
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