Day 6/Night 6 Scum Discussion

[pede]

Good news!

[special]

not really. We're doomed

[special]

Why the hell would Town have a roleblocker?

[septimus]

Ed, Please comment on following post. What about its references to you?
Post to follow....

[septimus]

My thoughts on the game.

First, all games I've seen have had a Scum Godfather who investigates as Vanilla Town. I think Hirka caught one of them before he died, else Scum would have kept Hirka alive to "clear" the true Godfather, especially if he could draw an investigation.

Second, the death of Hirka despite my Protection requires some explanation. Possibilities are:
1. I lied to say I Protected Hirka. This is rather the Occam's Razor solution.
2. Choie is the Scum Backup, becamse Blokcker when she bussed Silver Jan, blocked me last Night and is now lying.
3. Choie is indeed the Town Roleblocker, but blocked me last Night and is now lying about it. I'm sure Choie is adept enough player not to do this.
4. Both Scum and SK targeted Hirka, overriding my single Protect. This is unlikely for at least two reasons: That's not the traditional rule. SK is probably PCM and dead.
5. There is an unexplained Redirection Power. Godfathers sometimes have extra powers (e.g. one-time over-kill) so Mahaloth or Scathach could be the Rdirector.
6. One of the remaining two, Svejk and Special Ed, is the Scum Redirector. (If choie is truthteller, Ed has an alibi last Night.) Svejk may be the Scum Redirector but if so, deserves the win, as well as being the first rookie installed in the Mafia Hall of Fame.

Now how does this play out? We'd like to kill Scum's Power player quickly, but as outlined above, only Ed has a pure alibi for that. One of Mahaloth or Scathach is most probably Godfather, possibly with the special Power that overrode my Protection last Night.

The most parsimonious explanation for last Night's death is that either choie or I is lying. If Townies wish, Lynch the guiltier of us, but first promise to Lynch choie tomorrow if I flip Town at EOD.

If three Scum survive, or if an SK is still around, we may be at Lynch or Lose and have probably lost for sure, but I think the SK is dead and only 1 or 2 Scum survive, and we can guarantee victory with careful voting.

Here goes:
Lynch mahaloth or scathach toDay and (worst-case) if the Flip is Townie, Lynch the other the next day. I'll try to stop the Night Kill, but the odds are against me, especially if last Night's Override was not just a one-time Power.

Ed ... Here I fail ...
I need to doctor up some voting scenario, but would need assumptions about toMorrow Night's NK.

A key point, which I've not worked in is that either both you and choie are Scum or both are Town.

[special]

I can't access this site from work, and I went back to work.

I should have checked from my phone.

I liked your post though. It had enough plausible Townie suspicion and enough stuff to drive Townies crazy if you die.

I cannot believe they still have any faith in you whatsoever. Maybe it's PIS, but you claim to have protected the guy who is dead, meaning that the Scum must have an unstoppable kill that they never used on you...?

really?

[septimus]

Suggestions? Should I vote for you, Ed?

If we fail to Kill toNight, and toMorrow I announce that my Protection finally worked, would I gain enough cred to win?

We both seem to be at the top of 2 or more Suspect lists.

[special]

Wouldn't a mislynch toDay and a kill toNight assure us 2-2? I mean, we'd have to go through a tiebreaker twice, wouldn't we? But can't we risk that?


3. Mahaloth (m)
4. Scathach (f)
9. septimus (m)
10. choie (f)
12. special ed (m)
18. Svejk (?)


20. fisha (f)
6. gregorio (m)
14. wevets (m)
1. Inner Stickler (m)
2. Astral Rejection (m)
11. orcenio (m)
17. GuiriEnEspana (m)
7. MentalGuy (m)
13. fubbleskag (m)
19. fluiddruid (f)
8. Hirka T'Bawa (m)


5. precambrianmollusc (m)

16. gnarlycharlie (m)
15. Silver Jan (f)

[septimus]

ooops ! ::whack::
you were on-line and could have proofread my post for me.
"ed - exact middle of the field, strongly pro-Town"

did I lay it on a little thick? ::whack::

Sit back and hope they fall for it I guess.... If it works: Way to go partner!! ;D

[special]

it was a little thick, but it'll all be WiFoM, won't it?

Hopeful my slight distancing from you might prove beneficial.

It might convince scathach or choie to agree with me. Alternatively, it might help you get to EndGame if I die.

[septimus]

Did we just skate or what?

Or is EOD tomorrow ?

If Svejk dies, how about: 1-day Night, 3-day Day; Kill Scathach. ToMorrow I vote Mahaloth, you vote choie.

@ Pede / Trepa - If vote is 2-2 toMorrow, is my understanding correct?
- that you flip a coin. Heads scum wins, tails we end in a 1-1 Draw?

[special]

we've got 3.5 hours or so by my calculations.

If we get Svejk, the game becomes a game of chance.

we can hold off on voting or even posting early. I assume both of them will vote for you. However, if they split between you and me, we can win outright with late votes for one of them. But they'll be too cunning for that.

I might even play an early vote for you. It's worth considering. Put just that last seed of doubt in choie's mind.

The non-reveal of PCM could come into play if they overthink things.

[special]

I'll also pretend to have forgotten that Scum actually need to outnumber the Town to win. Lay the seeds of doubt about PCM.

[special]

well, that should be it for the day

[gnarlycharlie]

good game guys!

[special]

Jan 9, 2012 13:21:32 GMT -5 gnarlycharlie said:

good game guys!

;D

we did it!