|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:07:21 GMT -5
Post by pede on Feb 27, 2009 20:07:21 GMT -5
Pikmin Count: 0 Red Pikmin 3 Yellow Pikmin 0 Blue Pikmin 2 Purple Pikmin 0 White Pikmin
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:12:21 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 20:12:21 GMT -5
OK... I honestly don't know what the hell to do now. We just threw away an almost guaranteed win. All we had to do was to beat the tiebreaker by getting one townie to vote one other townie, and then dogpile the townie with five votes each.
Now... I've got to choose someone to "investigate". Any ideas?
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:13:49 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 20:13:49 GMT -5
The odd thing is that Nanook's final vote might work in our favour. Him voting two obvious townies and KidV might be seen as an obvious attempt to take suspicion off KidV himself...
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:15:14 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 20:15:14 GMT -5
Oh, and despite the fact that I've been bussing you since round two, I'm really sorry to see you go Nook. Hope you didn't take it personally.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:17:28 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 20:17:28 GMT -5
Lame. Nothing more needs to be said.
Spoil me.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:17:47 GMT -5
Post by nanook on Feb 27, 2009 20:17:47 GMT -5
Oh and no, I'm not upset with you.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:24:42 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Feb 27, 2009 20:24:42 GMT -5
Ok. This is tremendous BS. Apparently this site decided that there would be an additional security post late this pm. Or maybe ny It folks. This is total whoo. It was clkear where my votes were going. If you are not going to acknowledge reality then, Meh. Holy crud, peded, just ' cause our site interaction requires upgraded protocols that are fluid should not influence the game. Holy crud my access was basically re-set to zero with this site. You know what the intent was, let's see if you are as forgiving to our team as you have been with the town. If not, I officially quit. You seem to be able to work with the towners. You see my Pm's so you know where I would land. If it's a loaded deck then I fucked you guys, sorry. Cause I did post and the site decided to et it up,
Woot woot.
Let's see if we get a ruling on our side for the first time.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 20:25:56 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 27, 2009 20:25:56 GMT -5
Whoever you choose to "investigate", you have to give an accurate result, or you're dead when that person dies.
You could investigate peeker and find him Town. If you do, though, Hoopy will be all on you about how at this point you should be trying to confirm Town, not find scum, so we'd have to come up with a good reason as to why you felt strongly enough that he was Town to target him.
Otherwise, choose a Townie that we don't think we can get lynched, is suspicious enough that you can lay out a small case that he's at risk for lynching, and yet Townie enough that you personally "felt he was Town."
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 27, 2009 23:04:23 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 27, 2009 23:04:23 GMT -5
There's the Pikmin doc thing, and that's pretty much kept me clear of townie suspicions for the last two rounds of the game. I hardly think we've had the worst of it. Besides, we've had some pretty astonishing luck as well as benefited from some howlers on behalf of the town. I mean, it took them three goes to get Special Ed. That's one wasted lynch and one wasted vig shot. So let's not forget how fortunate we've been so far here.
I feel your pain, but it's no use blaming Pede for a bit of bad luck. Votes have to be in by a certain time, rules are rules, etc. I knew the risks when I came up with the plan in the first place. There was always a possibility that someone wouldn't be able to get online, or would have trouble posting, or whatever.
The key thing is, how do we recover from this and move forward? We're still in a good position numbers-wise. We've now got two night-kills to use, and I can always investigate someone like Paul who's under a little suspicion but wouldn't be likely to be voted out any time soon. Or I could claim to have self-protected. Hell, we've got all night to think about it.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 5:01:25 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Feb 28, 2009 5:01:25 GMT -5
WTF? Why would this happen at the worst possible time? I was on my computer one hour before the day end waiting to put my votes in. I decided to get up and get some food and when I got back with 15 minutes left my internet wasn't working. I couldn't load any sites. I was frantically trying everything I could think of: resetting the router and modem, restarting my computer, etc.
I even tried to use my neighbors wireless signal, but he had it password protected.
Finally I called MCV (the internet provider in Guam) and asked WTF was going on. They said they had an outage in my neighborhood for some preventive maintainence.
Damn it! That is the worst possible timing. Why couldn't they tell me in advance?
Anyways, I am extremely sorry I wasn't able to be there to do what we planned. I tried everything I could think of.
Sorry.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 5:11:46 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Feb 28, 2009 5:11:46 GMT -5
Whoever you choose to "investigate", you have to give an accurate result, or you're dead when that person dies. You could investigate peeker and find him Town. If you do, though, Hoopy will be all on you about how at this point you should be trying to confirm Town, not find scum, so we'd have to come up with a good reason as to why you felt strongly enough that he was Town to target him. Otherwise, choose a Townie that we don't think we can get lynched, is suspicious enough that you can lay out a small case that he's at risk for lynching, and yet Townie enough that you personally "felt he was Town." What is the plan for tonight? If we are not killing KidV we might be able to get the town to lynch him tomorrow. If you 'investigate' him as scum we should be able to get everyone to vote him. I don't know if that is worth giving you up though. We definitely need two kills tonight. I would say redirect off of Peeker. I will poison whoever drinks, but I don't know if we will catch anyone drinking at this point. I really want to find out what my essence of hate and essence of love do. Maybe they force votes. That could be vital at this stage in the game. If essence of hate forces them to target me with night powers then we could use that on Paul and redirect off of me to whoever we want to kill. Also, who is going to perform the kill tonight? Sheik is gone, so we don't have a guaranteed unblockable kill. We should choose people unlikely to be guarded.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 5:14:38 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Feb 28, 2009 5:14:38 GMT -5
Also, if you investage me as town that would be the same as investigating KidV scum at this point.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 5:25:11 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Feb 28, 2009 5:25:11 GMT -5
I think we should kill Paul.
If we get two kills tonight then it will be 4-5.
We will have 12 first place votes to the town's 15.
If we can get a couple of them to vote KidV with second or third votes we can all pile on him and I think we will be able to get him lynched.
Then it will Be 4-4 and we will have to kill one during the night to have the win, 4-3.
That is provided Roxis doesn't kill one of us with Leech Seed and we don't die some other way.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 5:27:17 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Feb 28, 2009 5:27:17 GMT -5
I think Pollux should be our other kill tonight, but Shaggy would be good too.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 9:32:55 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 28, 2009 9:32:55 GMT -5
Without any doubt whatsoever, we should kill Roxis and Paul. There are two power roles in this game now that could really, really screw us over, and those two are them.
Pollux might be losing a little face - it's been a long time since he obtained a staff. On the other hand, I don't want to leave him alive until the very end. Hard to see how he can really hurt us at this point though.
My suggestion would be:
Kat redirects Peeker and Hoopy. (Hopefully Paul will choose to either hit KidV or Peeker tonight. Either way, we win.) I kill Roxis. Peek trophifies Paul.
As for my "investigation", I can do one, I'm just not sure what to do with it.
If Paul can get enough votes onto Hoopy or KidV (at least four) then we dogpile them. That solves our problem straight away.
If we can get Roxis to drink, I think Punker should sleepify her. She could either redirect or get a daykill vig tomorrow, and either one could be disastrous for us if she uses it correctly.
If Paul goes for Punker, then I don't know what the heck we can do to prevent it. He's not been suspicious of Punker before, he's more onto KidV and Peeker.
As for my claimed investigation... assuming that we don't have a guaranteed win thanks to Paul, here's a few options.
1) I bus KidV. I don't mind saying (and I hope he takes this as a compliment after the game) that I really, really don't want to come up against him again. He bites.
2) I bus another townie. Trouble is, there aren't that many candidates. If I said Pollux, Parzival or Shaggy were scum, would they believe me?
3) I bus Kat. In other words, I throw them the least useful actual scum we have once the only power roles that could really hurt us are dead. This might be necessary if it looks like Peeker or Punker are going to get taken out. Right now Peeker's our only regular night-kill, I'm the alt night-kill, and Punker being lynched would reveal that there's a poisoner among us, which could kill us all.
4) I claim that one of us is town. In which case the first question is: can I get away with it? Second question is: would it be useful in the long term, regardless of who I choose? The answer to the first question is a definite "maybe". The answer to the second question, as far as I can work it, is "no". If the person I investigate is subsequently revealed as scum, unless it's Peeker, then I'm toast. Also they won't take the investigation as definite with a Godfather most likely still in the game.
5) I claim that I self-protected. Ugh, I can probably get away with it, but it feels like a cop-out and a possible waste...
As for the following day, I've got some pretty specific suggestions.
- If Paul hits Punker, I claim Kat as scum. In that situation we 100% would need a definite target to take the votes off Punker, and if it's not an actual scum, I'm dead. I cannot reiterate this enough: Punker needs to stay alive until the end.
- If Paul hits KidV or Hoopy with four votes or more, we have enough to win provided we get two full night-kills. We just have to vote for the person he hit the whole way. In that case, I'd probably claim that my Pikmin were eaten by an heffalump. I mean, who cares, right?
- If Paul hits KidV with three votes, we have another potential tie. In which case I suggest I pretend to vote with town until the last minute. (I seem to be the only one apart from Kat who's not had any trouble with his Internet or Proboards generally.) Note that I can't vote if the end of the day happens at a time when I'm at work. The point is, at least one townie has to put KidV down as his second or third vote, and we need to make sure that none of us votes for whichever scum is up against KidV. Well the last part is easy enough. As to the first part, I suggest that we gradually introduce the following:
- Peeker defends KidV initially. - I say I'm worried about starting a scum bandwagon on KidV, if he's not, and vote with the town. - Punker comes out swinging against KidV. - Kat is suspicious of KidV, but not enough to throw more than a single vote against him.
I suggest we introduce those opinions slowly over a few real-life days, and in that order. It should create enough confusion over whether KidV is being bussed or whether he's actually scum. Then Peeker and Kat make a reluctant switch last-day (as late as possible but NOT last minute this time), probably to save Peeker or Punker. I make a last-minute switch and we make sure none of us have any votes on whichever actual scum is being targeted by the town. If just one townie has a second or third-place vote on KidV, we win the tiebreaker and the game.
- If Paul hits Hoopy, but he only gets three votes, I don't see how we can win the tiebreaker unless we can convince the townies to split their votes or put a throwaway on Hoopy himself. Neither of which is likely, but I think we have to try.
- If Paul hits Kat, I'd be amazed. But I'd also be bussing her at this point. Again, Kat is by far the least valuable to the scum once Paul and Roxis are out of the picture.
- If Paul hits nobody, it's actually bad for us. As things stand, KidV is pretty much our only "buffer". He could also be dangerous tomorrow night if Kat is taken out, fatal if Punker is. And if Peeker goes, we lose nightkill power.
- If Paul doesn't make a conclusive hit, or hits Hoopy with three votes, our first priority should be splitting the town votes and lynching KidV. To do this, we need at least one townie to be voting KidV three times at the end. That means that our first priority is keeping attention off KidV at the start of the day, and not doing anything to make it look like he's being bussed by the scum.
- Punker, I suggest that you and I act towards the end of the second RL day to make him a valid target. - Punker, your best shot is probably voting KidV for three votes, Peeker or Kat for two, yourself for one. - Peeker and Kat, stay the hell off KidV, even though you voted him yesterday Kat. (In fact, do nothing whatsoever to draw attention to that fact.) You two can be our surprise hit. - Finally, I can claim to have investigated him as scum late on to keep people's votes on him. I will ONLY do this if there's a good chance he looks to be lynched anyway.
OK. That's pretty damn in-depth. Sorry if I'm being anal here, but I don't think yesterday went well and I'd like to make damn sure there aren't any mistakes this time out. Does it sound good to you guys?
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 10:26:47 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 28, 2009 10:26:47 GMT -5
Another in-depth night post: please vet.So... can someone now explain to me how it was any different voting for Nanook then for Natlaw? Other than it potentially gives KidV a killing power? I admit, I was wrong. I was looking for some fun and creative strategy on the part of scum. Apparently, nothing of the sort occured here. So... Now I guess we go back to looking at voting patterns and hope something pops out? The lack of creative voting is a huge bonus IMO. It suggests that the scum maybe haven't got the numbers to pull off last-minute voting stunts. The other possibility is that they were too timid to try because they were worried it wouldn't work out - maybe because our biggest vote-getters were scum? Either way, it's good for the townies. And while everyone's celebrating over the defeat of a scum (and BTW, sorry to see you go Natlaw) can I point out that the one person who could've protected me without any real risk to himself, since the numbers mean a helluva lot more to scum than town, has just effectively been lynched? I can only perform one action per night. So even though I've got four Pikmin thanks to Parzival, and one of them is white and another is purple, I can't risk investigating, or else I'd be night-killed. On the other hand, if I self-protect, the scum won't waste a night-kill on me and someone else will have been killed while I've been no help whatsoever. Either way, I'm useless to the town right now if the scum know what I'm going to do. So here's what I'm going to do instead. I'm going to take a shiny new ten pence piece, and I'm going to ask one of my housemates to toss it and see where it lands. In other words, I'm taking the decision out of my own hands, where it could be predicted by the scum, and leaving it up to completely random chance. If it lands on "heads", I self-protect. A purple Pikmin and the other two that aren't white give me a 100% chance of surviving night-kill. (If there was another protective or investigative role out there BTW, I'd consider protecting someone else. I was considering Roxis but it seems as though she's one Pokemon down and she's got Ivysaur tonight, whatever happens. As for everyone else, I don't see the point. I don't want to risk giving the scum an opening to exploit by leaving myself vulnerable.) If it lands on "tails", I investigate somebody I think might be incorrectly lynched in the future - in other words, I try to narrow down our pool of suspects. A white Pikmin and two that aren't purple will give me the alignment of one person. If I hit a townie, great. If I hit scum, well, at least we have a definite target tomorrow. Either way, I don't tell you guys who I've got in mind, for reasons that are obvious enough that I don't think I have to list them here. So that gives four possible outcomes: 1) I self-protect, and the scum attempt to night-kill me. At this point, a failed night-kill is solid gold for the town. It could make a huge difference to the endgame. 2) I investigate, and the scum night-kill someone else. Again, this is ideal. We either get a near-confirmed townie (bearing in mind there might be a Godfather about) or a near-confirmed scum. 3) I self-protect, and the scum night-kill someone else. Not ideal, but we haven't technically lost anything that wouldn't have been lost anyway. We're no worse off than we thought we would be. 4) I investigate, and the scum night-kill me. I'm left cursing my bad luck and the fates in general, and the town loses one minor doc/investigator combo. Worse, you guys also lose my razor-sharp wit and magnetic personality. I don't know how you'll be able to survive, but please, keep going and try to avenge me. I haven't had a chance to get someone to throw the coin yet, and I don't intend to post in the night-thread once I have in case I accidentally give anything away. Whatever the result is, I'm going to stick by it. If anybody has any objections to this plan, speak now. Italics were incredibly annoying.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 11:34:12 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 28, 2009 11:34:12 GMT -5
Didn't Natlaw say that his flask still protected you even if he died? Or did he not protect you this time around? I was sure he posted that he did, but I can't find that post.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 11:41:22 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 28, 2009 11:41:22 GMT -5
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 12:19:49 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 28, 2009 12:19:49 GMT -5
Eek! Glad I didn't post then. So it's not a matter of "if" I investigate, it's "who" I investigate.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 13:01:24 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 28, 2009 13:01:24 GMT -5
Possible choices I see are:
1) Bus me Confirms you even more strongly as Town; keeps peeker alive for another Day
2) "Confirm" peeker as Town Keeps peeker alive, is excusable by the Godfather reading, but people will bring up the possibility of a Godfather
3) Confirm KidV as Town Confirms you even more strongly as Town, but takes KidV off the lynchwagon (although someone could still bring up the possibility of a Godfather); pretty much dooms peeker
4) Confirm Pollux as Town Confirms you even more strongly as Town, and Pollux isn't likely to end up as lynchmeat soon, but you've expressed enough suspicion on him that makes it explainable, could still manage to get a KidV wagon hitched up.
Oh, and if we lose peeker, we aren't completely messed up NK-wise. I'd just have to NK instead of switching, or Peach would have to NK instead of poisoning. I'd advise against Olimar doing the NK (the standard NK, not his extra kill, that is) if we can avoid it.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 21:05:03 GMT -5
Post by kat on Feb 28, 2009 21:05:03 GMT -5
If I switch peeker and Hoopy, you'd have to claim a different investigate target than peeker, though, or I could claim switching punker[/p] and Hoopy, which would be very interesting if someone targets punker...
I could claim myself and Hoopy, perhaps. There's no rule against me targeting myself in the PM. Is there, pede?
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 22:49:01 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 28, 2009 22:49:01 GMT -5
As regarding who I target - see above post. It depends on who Paul targets. As regarding who YOU target - without any shadow of a doubt, Peeker and the most innocent townie possible (ideally Hoopy). Here's why. Paul's the only role we really have to watch out for, and he's WAY more suspicious of KidV than he is of Punker. If he targets KidV and gets more than two votes on him, we're laughing. If he targets Peeker and gets redirected to Hoopy instead, we're still laughing. If he targets you or Punker... well, I'll kick myself, and bus you like there's no tomorrow. But I don't expect to have to do that.
|
|
|
Night 5
Feb 28, 2009 22:51:21 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Feb 28, 2009 22:51:21 GMT -5
As regarding who you claim to target - I wouldn't choose yourself or Peeker, in case there are other night actions or claimed night actions on you. And nobody will believe a redirect on me is town-biased now. Nobody's likely to target Parzival or Pollux... can you come up with a good reason to switch those two?
|
|
|
Post by kat on Mar 1, 2009 0:07:50 GMT -5
I might be able to pull that off, especially Parzival, for his comment about Natlaw. And if I claim him and Hoopy, I'm just (sorta) following Hoopy's advice of "If you think someone is town, don't touch them. Either target two scum, or a scum and me."
If I do that, see if you can wait until the major players have reacted before you claim. Then you can bus me for Town cred if there's a backlash.
|
|
|
Night 5
Mar 1, 2009 13:20:15 GMT -5
Post by kat on Mar 1, 2009 13:20:15 GMT -5
Well, than, if there are no further suggestions: I switch peeker and Hoopy
If there are further suggestions, try to get them in shortly, as I won't be online after 4 PM Central Time, and I'm note sure if I'll be back before Dawn.
|
|
|
Night 5
Mar 1, 2009 14:33:55 GMT -5
Post by virginmary on Mar 1, 2009 14:33:55 GMT -5
Fuckity fuck fuck fuck.
I trophy shag.
That's my vote.
Should have done it last night.
Fuckity fuck fuck fuck.
And GD I promise my account got locked at ten minut
|
|
|
Night 5
Mar 1, 2009 15:54:13 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Mar 1, 2009 15:54:13 GMT -5
Nobody has had a drink, so I guess I don't do anything? Unless someone has a plan to get them to drink real quick...
|
|
|
Night 5
Mar 1, 2009 16:17:37 GMT -5
Post by molefan1981 on Mar 1, 2009 16:17:37 GMT -5
Peek, the only threats to us winning this game by sheer force of numbers is if Roxis vigs one of us or Paul hits one of us with the slam hammer. We need both of them out. PLEASE switch to Paul.
|
|
|
Night 5
Mar 1, 2009 16:18:06 GMT -5
Post by kat on Mar 1, 2009 16:18:06 GMT -5
You could choose a player at random. Remember, they can drink at any time after you have poisoned them, even during the Day.
|
|
|
Night 5
Mar 1, 2009 16:32:46 GMT -5
Post by crazypunker22 on Mar 1, 2009 16:32:46 GMT -5
Paul just drank, should we poison him and kill someone else?
|
|